Prediction #3: Blockchain Identity for All
By 2030, a cross-border, blockchain-based, self-sovereign identity standard will emerge for individuals, as well as physical and virtual assets.
If e-mail proved to be the “killer app” for the Internet, identity solutions will prove to be the “killer app” for blockchain. Identity systems, as we know them today, are highly dysfunctional, operating in silos, and insecure. Blockchain-based identity systems will solve these problems. These systems will provide a single source of verification for individuals’ identities and assets.
Blockchain-based identity decentralizes the data collection, cross-verifies the collected data via a consensus mechanism, and stores this information on a decentralized immutable ledger. It enables reduced risk of security breaches, significantly higher efficiencies, higher reliability, and most importantly self-sovereignty.
According to various data sources, 1.5 billion people in the developing world lack proof of identity, including more than 65 million refugees. Blockchain-based self-sovereign identity platforms will provide the disenfranchised population with tools to obtain and maintain legal documentation. The new identity platform will be more secure and reliable since it will be stored on a distributed ledger rather than being in the possession of a central authority. Blockchain-based identity platforms will also enable self-sovereignty, which ultimately means individual privacy. The decision to disclose identity information will be within each individual’s control. With recent Facebook data-breach scandals dominating the news, blockchain-based identity creates a viable and important solution to many data privacy issues.
Some use cases for the types of data stored on a blockchain-based identity platform include (but are not limited to):
– Government records (e.g., date of birth, etc.)
– Reputation & trust scores (e.g., credit history)
– Certificates & attestations (e.g., university diploma)
– Healthcare & medical records
– Tax identification records
– Employment records
While it is unlikely that, by 2030, a clear end-to-end solution will emerge as a clear winner, a high degree of interoperability among identity platforms will enable ease of use and global cross-verification.
Furthermore, a blockchain-based asset identity platform will collect, store, and share data for both physical and virtual assets. More than 20 billion IoT devices are projected to exist by 2020. From your smart refrigerator to an airplane engine, these “smart” chips are already pervasive. By their nature, IoT devices are continuously connected to the internet. They collect, store, and transport unique sets of data. Blockchain will provide a secure, reliable, and efficient mechanism for these devices to transact among one other. Blockchain will keep an immutable record of all interactions and will enable instantaneous payment settlements (e.g., two IoT devices transferring assets between each other).
Virtual assets will also have a unique identity on a blockchain. One example of virtual assets would be crypto kitties, fictional cats existing in a virtual game and living on the Ethereum blockchain. With the power of blockchain, these virtual objects are turned into tokenized assets which, similarly to physical assets, will have their unique identity. Ultimately, blockchain will enable an automated operating system seamlessly connecting individuals with assets in physical as well as in virtual worlds.
Sample companies solving individual identity today: uPort, BlockAuth, Civic, PeerMountain, IDRamp, Sovereign, Sovrin, LifeID, TrustedKey, Ping Identity, SelfKey, TheKey, NuID, ValidatedID, 2way.io, Microsoft, CryptID, ExistenceID, IBM, Blockstack, BlockCerts, Lumeno.us, etc.
Sample companies solving physical & virtual asset identity today: WAX, Verses, BlockV, Xage, Guardtime, Filament, Chronicled, Blocksafe, DMarket, etc.
Prediction #4: World Trade on a Blockchain
By 2030, most of world trade will be conducted leveraging blockchain technology.
One of the most promising areas where blockchain can provide significant business value is global supply chain. In its current state, world trade is conducted via a chaotic, fragmented set of business relationships among parties that are untrusted. This results in inefficiencies, errors, and fraud. This is a set of real-world business problems that are currently unsolved and cannot be fully solved without using blockchain technology.
Some examples of real-world supply chain problems that need to be solved are:
Counterfeit medicines in the pharmaceutical industryFood supply chain in China (the tragic case of adulterated infant formula)Fake Louis Vuitton handbags and other fashion apparel in AsiaCounterfeit auto parts in North AmericaGrey market or counterfeit electronic equipment, including medical devices (World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 8% are fake)Enterprise IT equipment — a major manufacturer of enterprise networking equipment estimates 10% of products in its multi-billion-dollar supply chain are grey market
As is evident, the problems in global supply chains are significant and, in some cases, life-threatening. According to WHO, tens of thousands of people die from counterfeit drugs every year. The solution to these problems is difficult because the business ecosystems are fragmented, siloed, only partially automated, and lacking a trusted central authority with jurisdiction, resources and credibility to track provenance and certify authenticity.
Unlike the example of the banking industry, where there is an existing system (SWIFT) that works correctly and reliably, in the supply-chain examples, there is no proven, working system. There is no order, only chaos. Therefore, disruption is not an option, because disruption implies disintermediating or dismantling an existing system.
What is required is “anti-disruption” — i.e., bringing order to chaos by using blockchain technology as a force for unification: to unify disparate flows of payment, physical goods and information. This won’t be easy, and complete solutions will take years to build. In effect, one is constructing an ERP system for a business ecosystem, which means it will take longer and be more difficult than building an ERP system for a single company.
Also, as mentioned earlier, the technology does not yet have the functional scope, flexibility, performance, efficiency, and maturity. Once it matures, the problems in supply chains are real enough, and important enough that solutions will eventually be built, and blockchain will play a critical role in these future solutions.
Sample Companies: Skuchain, Provenance, Blockfreight, Blockverify, Caravaggio, Cargo Chain, Chain of Things, Consentio, Everledger, Filament, Fluent, Kioog, Kouvola Innovation, Mojix, Modum, Synechron, Tallysticks, Tradle, Wave, Zerado.
Prediction #5: (Blockchain4Good)
By 2030, significant improvements in the world’s standard of living will be attributable to the development of blockchain technology.
Poverty and income discrepancy are arguably the hardest problems for humanity to tackle. More than 10% of the world population, more than 750 million people, live on less than $2 a day. More than 2 billion people are considered to be unbanked and have no access to financial services. Though the overall living standards increase, and world’s GDP is on the rise, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
Blockchain technology has the potential to shrink the poverty gap. How? It can be done by increasing financial inclusiveness, reducing corruption, and enabling decentralized access to value-creating assets. Here are three examples.
Financial inclusiveness is the most obvious benefit of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. As is already evident today, Bitcoin and blockchain enable the unbanked population to get banked, and therefore, get paid. One no longer needs to rely on a centralized institution, such as the government or a bank, to give you permission to open a bank account. You can buy and sell Bitcoin on an open market (provided access to a crypto exchange) with access to a smartphone. A number of merchants around the world already accept cryptocurrencies. By 2030, cryptocurrency will serve as a de facto standard, similar to how the US dollar is widely accepted today.
Second, blockchain technology reduces corruption by creating transparency of official records. Whether you are a farmer in rural Latin America or a house owner in Russia, you will no longer be driven out of your land by a corrupt official tampering with the land registry. All assets, including land, will be recorded on a transparent, tamper-free distributed ledger open for the public to see.
Solving this problem alone will have massive financial implications on the global economy. According to a prominent economist, Hernando DeSoto, “dead capital,” or, in other words, property or asset which is held but not legally recognized, is estimated at $20 trillion. Uncertainty around asset ownership reduces asset price and tradability potential. Therefore, by creating a transparent, tamper-proof property and asset tracking system, blockchain technology has the potential to increase global wealth.
Lastly, blockchain technology enables a massive-scale tokenization of value-generating assets only available to the rich right now. Think about buying The Plaza Hotel in New York City or an expensive piece of gold mining equipment producing a steady, recurring income stream over several years. To purchase such an asset today, one has to borrow large sums of money from a bank and take an upfront risk on the purchase. Blockchain enables tokenization of large-scale assets. This means that even if you are a farmer in rural Africa, you can now become a fractional owner of a revenue-generating asset such as a gold mine.
Sample companies solving this problem: Everex, ChromaWay, Velox, The BitFury Group, Factom, AlloyCoin, Disberse, etc.
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